FORECASTING TOURISM HUMAN RESOURCE DEMAND FOR THE PERIOD 2026-2030

Abstract

This paper analyzed the human resource challenges of Vietnam’s tourism industry post-COVID-19, comparing the 2021-2030 planning targets with actual growth during 2023–2025. The study quantified a significant labor gap, forecasting that the sector will require over one million additional direct workers from 2026-2030, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.9% per year. Rapid market recovery was exacerbating shortages in both quantity and quality, particularly in digital skills and high-value service capabilities. Thus, the paper proposed integrated policy solutions, including short-term measures and long-term strategic approaches.